Dollar flat versus the yen in trading late Monday night
The dollar was unchanged against the Japanese yen late Monday night. The greenback was flat at 90.33 yen, the same as what it bought in late afternoon trading.
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The Chilean currency suffered a large daily drawdown today as the declining stock markets around the world pressed on the investors to sell their high-yielding assets including emerging economies’ currencies.
The stock markets were declining today in U.S. and Europe as the central banks signaled a possible rate increase that would probably hurt the global economic development. While the major financial companies are still suffering from the subprime lending crisis, the inflation fears may push both Fed and ECB towards the higher interest rates.
Banco de Chile rose its interest rate yesterday from 6.25 percent to 6.75 percent, widening the gap between the U.S. rate to 4.75 percent and between the Japanese rate to 6.25 percent. That step will attract even more carry trade related activity to this South American currency.
USD/CPL rate rose today on Forex from 486.68 to 490.97 as of 20:51 GMT — that’s almost 1.3 percent daily growth. The unexpected interest rate growth made this pair to drop by almost 0.9 percent yesterday.
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The Japanese yen fell significantly today against the other major world currencies as the fast growth on the Asian and European stock markets attracted more participants to the carry trade activities.
Yen was used as a low-cost borrowing currency to fund the high-risk assets, including such currencies as euro, pound and the Australian dollar. All those currencies rose good today against the yen. The U. S. dollar also gained from the carry trades, but its gain was limited due to the correction that it experiences on Forex after the growth last week.
Even the major investment banks are turning their heads towards the carry trade, using yen as a short currency, as the global stock markets improve and the risk appetite grows among the investors.
The current attractiveness of the carry trades is based on the interest rate difference between the Japan and the countries with the higher borrowing costs. The benchmark rate in Japan is 0.5 percent compared to 4 percent in the Eurozone, 5 percent in the United Kingdom, 7.25 percent in Australia and 2 percent in U.S.
EUR/JPY reached its highest value since November 7 2008 today — it rose from 166.43 to 167.36 as of 12:58 GMT with a daily high at 167.68. GBP/JPY soared to the highest value since February 27 — from 210.35 to 212.54 today. USD/JPY is currently trading near its open rate at 108.06 but the daily high was at 108.58. AUD/JPY rose from 101.50 to 101.76 today
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The Chinese yuan extended its gain against the U.S. dollar today reaching the 20 percent appreciation since the end of the peg in 2005 as the new meetings of the U.S. and Chinese financial officials will be held soon.
The yuan’s gain for the period since July 21 2005 can be compared with 29 percent gain of euro versus dollar for the same period. Great Britain pound rose 13.2 percent and the Japanese yen made it 4.7 percent for the same 35-month period.
The current pace of the yuan’s appreciation is seen as the only way to slow down the accelerating inflation by the many currency strategists in the Wall Street.
As the international trade balance surplus widens in China and the foreign reserves grow the monetary base in the country threaten to press on the consumer prices. Chinese government urges banks to set aside bigger reserves as one of the measures to fight the inflation. Further decreasing of the yuan supply can lead to its continuous strengthening.
USD/CNY declined today from 6.9004 to 6.8959 today according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The decline of the currency pair is at 1.7 percent so far in the second quarter.
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The Indian rupee showed a weakening today at the Forex market as the speculations that the domestic companies will have to buy oil rose in the country.
As the commodities prices stopped falling today on the global markets the fears that the companies will have to convert the national currency into dollars to buy the oil pushed the rupee down. It was among the worst performing Asian currencies today.
While rupee’s behavior is seen as closely correlated with the oil prices, it will remain volatile and its fluctuations on the Forex market will be exploited by the traders. The central bank can interfere in this process with artificial appreciation.
The widening current-account deficit in India adds another reason for this Asian currency to go down compared to other world currencies. Even the high interest rates in the country won’t help as the deficit remains at record above $13 billion.
USD/INR rose today to in Mumbai trading 42.9050 from its close value of 42.8925 yesterday.
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The Swiss National Bank decided to keep the country’s main interest rate at its 6-year highest value facing the risks of both a higher inflation rate and a slower economic growth.
The Swiss franc fell today against the U.S. dollar in the Forex market as 3-month LIBOR target rate was left unchanged at 2.75 percent. It was an expected decision, but some analysts forecasted a possible 0.25 percent increase. The interest rate in Switzerland doesn’t change since September 2007.
Central banks across the world are facing a new dilemma — to raise the rates and get a lower inflation, or to increase them and prevent growth stagnation. European banks prefer to follow none of these ways and keep the rates unchanged (Bank of England, European Central Bank and now Swiss National Bank), American banks decide in the favor of growth (Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada), meanwhile Asian banks prefer to go up with the rates to fight the inflation (Reserve Bank of India, Central Bank of Philippines, Bank Indonesia).
Some market strategists stand on a position that a wage-based inflation is less likely to spiral in Switzerland than in the Eurozone countries. This factor may keep SNB from raising the rate in future and will decrease franc’s attractiveness in the medium-term period.
USD/CHF rose today after two days of decline when the dollar has been weak in the Forex market. The currency pair increased from 1.0364 to 1.0424 as of 8:57 GMT today. Before the rate decision it has reached a daily low at 1.0319.
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The dollar was unchanged against the Japanese yen late Monday night. The greenback was flat at 90.33 yen, the same as what it bought in late afternoon trading.
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